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Title: Analysis of the Aviation Safety Management System by Fractal and Statistical Tools
Authors: Bugayko, Dmytro
Leshchynskyi, Оleg
Sokolova, Nataliya
Keywords: aviation safety
data analysis
fractal-statistical analysis
the Hurst exponent
civil aviation
Issue Date: 2019
Publisher: International School of Logistics and Transport in Wroclaw
Citation: Buhayko D., Leshchynskyi O., Sokolova N., Isaienko V., Zamiar Z. Analysis of the Aviation Safety Management System by Fractal and Statistical Tools // Logistics and Transport– Wroclaw: International School of Logistics and Transport in Wroclaw. - 2019. - №4 (44). P. 41-60.
Series/Report no.: 44;4
Abstract: World civil aviation is an open-source system that is affected by a large number of related and non-related factors. Aviation safety is one of the prioritized directions in the industry. Its managerial decision-making process is primarily based on a versatile analysis of security data in which the choice of the appropriate mathematical apparatus is fundamental. This article suggests applying fractal-statistical analysis to evaluate the aviation safety management system in terms of determining the random distribution of quantitative dynamics of aircraft crashes with lethal consequences in the period from 1946 to 2017. This allows us to verify the adequacy of probabilistic approaches appliance in analysing the dynamics of aviation disasters. The results of research carried out on the basis of the Hurst exponent have allowed us to conclude that the dynamics of aviation disasters is characterized by the effect of "spatial memory". In other words, these are "hidden laws", for which further investigation can become an effective tool for the development of proactive methods in managing aviation safety.
DOI: 10.26411/83-1734-2015-4-44-5-19
Appears in Collections:Публікації у наукових виданнях співробітників кафедри екології

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